Why the Price of Bitcoin Will Hit $12 Million by 2019

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Moore’s law on transistors and other exponentially growing technologies. Calculating the doubling time of bitcoin. Making a prediction.

The Bitcoin Effect on Stocks and Real Estate:
View story at Medium.com

Warren Buffett Wisdom and Bitcoin:

20 COMMENTS

  1. the only way bitcoin will come remotely close to that number is if it becomes the world reserve currency. it's possible that could happen but doubtful. with that being said, even as the world reserve currency most estimate bitcoin at 1 to 2 million.

  2. 12 million haha. Nothing takes off like that variable change always changes what price is worth on anything. If it goes to 1k per coin thats good prediction. now its 240 so redo your dumb math equation.

  3. http://www.coindesk.com/ibm-reveals-proof-concept-blockchain-powered-internet-things/

    " According to the paper, a Samsung W9000 washing machine reconfigured to work within the ADEPT system uses smart contracts to issue commands to a detergent retailer in order to receive new supplies. These contracts give the device the ability to pay for the order itself and later receive word from the retailer that the detergent has been paid for and shipped."

  4. it's not going to double every 4 months.  you are using data from the most exceptionally volatile time points in the most, already, volatile currency.  interesting theory.  do these calculations include the amount of bitcoin released into the market every year? and also the diminishing amounts that will be released (i forget the exact rate at which is diminished)? just off the top of my head i can tell you these calculations are far too simplistic. also an exponential curve is not straight. and that graph of bitcoin value was not "essentially" "trending" in the manner you described.  it was extremely volatile.  it is too volatile to say there was a trend. yes it was and is successful and has also had setbacks.  this approach of explanation is like a caveman doing calculus (not calling the maker of the video a caveman, obviously he can do mathematics).

  5. This is, of course, not taking into consideration that 1 year ago the price of Bitcoin was at $1000USD and today (Jan 11, 2014) it is down to $280. If you did those same calculations a year ago you would have ended up with a doubling of just over a month. There are too many factors that influence the price of BTC to actually predict where the price will end up even a month from now.

  6. I tried…I really really did.  But when the words 'these robots are going to need to get paid' came out of your mouth I had to stop.
    Tell you what, I will buy as many bitcoins as you will sell me for $12 ea. in 2019.

  7. Also – don't forget that each Bitcoin is divisible in 100 million parts. That alone can work against your formula as the value of Bitcoin can be diluted based on various economic conditions (e.g. deflation). Theoretical extrapolation from your exponential growth formulas is hardly a way to predict anything in the Bitcoin universe.

  8. We are going to pay robots in Bitcoin? You lost me there buddy… I do believe in Bitcoin but comparing it to transistor count growth is an apples to oranges comparison. If you take away speculation from Bitcoin you have a form of money and a way to transmit money. You also have a public ledger that may have some other possible uses (record keeping, decentralized file sharing…). What is the value of all of this? High but not astronomic as you are suggesting!

  9. If I am using Bitcoin as a currency the last thing I want is for the price of Bitcoin to be volatile. I would want Bitcoin to find its comfortable place among other currencies and stay there. In other words, I would not want to be paid in Bitcoins only to find that I have half of my purchasing power left over the next day.

  10. I hope you're right but I don't think you can assume continuous exponential growth for Bitcoin. I think an s-curve model is more likely. The price will explode for a brief period of time and then stabilize at some value for the long term.

  11. This is not an optimistic prediction about Bitcoin. It's a pessimistic one about USD. Actually the 12 mil $ figure per BTC seems outrageous, but if you think about it, it's not. USD value today is about smoke and mirrors and enforcing by military power. This will not last forever, so while 1 BTC may be 12 mil USD in 2019, at the same time one loaf of bread may cost 10000 USD ;-)

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